last updated: 8 February 2001

Montalbo, Cresencio Jr.

Cresencio Montalbo has recently finished his PhD in Policy and Planning Sciences in the University of Tsukuba.

Research

Development of Transportation Gap and Modal Advantage Area Modeling for Policy Evaluation in Southeast Asian Countries

Travel demand in Southeast Asian cities has grown dramatically that the urban transportation system has had difficulty coping with it. The increasing dependence on private cars has led traffic congestion, excessive fuel consumption, and pollution. Rising car ownership and use are beginning to compromise the efficiency of the transport system. Public transportation offers the efficiency of travel that private cars do not offer. But the rise in motorization is threatening the opportunities for public transport to be sustainable. Travel demand management (TDM) measures are becoming important in creating a shift from car use to transit.

Policies are needed to enable a transport system to achieve its goals. Transport policies should ensure that the transport system can satisfy at least three requirements. First, public and private modes should have sufficient physical capacity to accommodate travel demand. Second, public modes should do this with financially viable operations. And third, there should be sufficient demand for public modes to have profitable operations. A quick-response and integrated model is developed in the study that evaluates the effects of transport policies on these three requirements.

A review of existing urban transportation characteristics and policies in the metropolitan areas of Manila, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta is done in the research. Using these transport policies and characteristics as inputs, the developed model defines the ranges of peak-hour CBD-bound travel demand that can be accommodated by the physical capacity of public and private modes and can give financial viability to public modes. Using a comparison of generalized cost as basis, the model also estimates the demand for bus and car that results from transport policies; bus and car being the dominant and competing modes for CBD-bound trips in the study area. The model uses operational data, financial data, and level of service characteristics of public and private modes. The model results are then validated by comparing them with actual financial performance of public transport systems and with travel demand data from person trip surveys conducted in the study area.

Different transport policies are simulated and their effects on the physical capacity and financial viability of modes are determined. Estimates of demand for a mode resulting from such transport policies are obtained. Policies on subsidy, fares, capacity, occupancy, speed, and travel demand management are evaluated using the developed model. It is found that subsidies are indispensable for the viability of rail-based transport modes. The higher-quality bus services are more profitable than the regular or economy bus services. Very high occupancy levels are required to accommodate the high demand for bus, indicating that higher-capacity modes may be more appropriate to accommodate the big demand. Travel demand management measures that reflect the true costs of car travel have a high possibility for creating a shift from private car travel to public transit. The combination of policies for public transport improvement and car use restriction has a great potential to create a balance between public and private transportation. This underscores the importance of a holistic and integrated approach in solving urban transportation problems.